Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 37

Lime Update

With the rains over the past week, limes are maturing and yellowing quickly. This is causing a rush to pick them off the trees. The 21 day look back shows volume of 602 loads two weeks ago, growing to 698 loads and now 736 loads for the last 7 days reported. We expect this surge in volume to last for a couple of weeks and to be followed by a lack of volume in October and November due to the poor health of the trees following such a long drought prior to this weeks’ rain. The overall quality and condition of the crop is poor relative to what Mexico normally produces. Sizing is very concentrated on small sizes. You can expect shorter shelf life than normal and quickly yellowing fruit in general due to the weakened health of the drought stricken trees. The market is long on 230s and 250s and we are looking for quick promos to move through it in the next week or two.

The number of stores on ad on limes fell from 1,942 last week to 355 stores for the week ending 9/19 at an average retail price of $0.34 per unit. There were only 12 stores on an organic lime ads at $2.99 per pound according to the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 37 today. Volumes are still relatively strong out of Mexico as you can see in the Arrival Volume Chart below. Daily crossing have averaged around 56 loads per day the last 7 days reported so this is still near peak volume from Northern Sinaloa. This volume will start to fall next week and the HWT plants should all be closed in Southern Sinaloa. The Mexican Keitt sizing is enormous as shown in table below with 6s being the peak size, followed by 5s and then 4s. Eating quality is great but appearance is declining with heavy lenticel freckling and skin abrasions and sap burn being significant detractors on appearance. Demand is incredibly strong and there is very little excess fruit laying around without commitments already on it. Market is wide ranging from $5.00 to $7.00 generally.

Brazil is ramping up packing. We have very high confidence in the accuracy of our projections below for what Brazil will ship this season. The peak arrivals will be the vessels of weeks 40, 41, and 42. Although the Arrival Volume chart shows the Total Round volume available in the country being a million boxes less than where we are today, Amazon will have plenty of fruit to supply its customers due to the strength of our Brazil program, so please contact us about promoting red mangos through October with loading starting with the vessel of October 4th for promotions. Quality has been fantastic on early arrivals and we expect this to continue. Sizing has been large peaking on 9s, then 8s on the first vessels with very few 12s and no 14s but we expect this to shift to a more balanced distribution with 9s/10s being the peak as we get into the heart of the season. Please let us know if you are interested in Kent/Keitt/Palmer fibreless mangos from Brazil. We can bring some volume as long as we can compete on pricing to the grower with the Europe market.

One Ecuador grower has started picking Ataulfos, but our growers are warning us that this is very premature and that volume of properly mature round fruit will be very delayed this year. Flowering was weeks behind last year and the weather is still seeing cool nights which slows growth and maturity. See the Ecuador early season projection below. We don’t expect Ecuador to get going in volume on round mangos until right about Thanksgiving creating a high volume peak between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Please plan to take advantage of that volume in the week 48 to 52 time frame this year. Honey Mangos (Ataulfos) are earlier than the round varieties. You can see in the Arrival Volume Chart that we expect some decent supplies in late October so retailers can plan to reactivate that item code.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 4,411 stores to 2,794 stores on ad for the week ending 9/19. Weighted average retail price was $1.12 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 211 last week to 156 stores this coming week with an average retail price of $2.23 each. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 25

Lime Update

Mexican lime volumes rose from 534 truckloads week ending 6/8 to 880 truckloads for the week ending Saturday 6/15. This was a massive increase as was expected after the weather cleared up following a couple of weeks of rain. Weather in Veracruz is forecasted to be nice the rest of the week so we expect volumes to continue heavy. Prices are cheap and you can always find somebody cheaper but quality is the key to success with these summer limes. Diligent grading out of skin defects followed by an effective forced air cooling to stabilize and give a long shelf life is the key to putting up a premium pack. Not everyone has the technique or the forced air system to accomplish this. Sizing is concentrating in the 175s and 200s with 110s and 250s being light on the manifests. Fruit is moving well but supplies are heavy. We would like to commit to ads so please include us in you ad quoting and run opportunities by us.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 1,982 last week to 2,788 stores for the week ending 6/20 at an average retail price of $0.25 per unit. There were also 341 stores on ad at an average of $0.43 per pound. There was only one store on an organic lime ad at 50 cents per each reported by the USDA specialty crop market news survey of more than 400 retailers.

Mango Crop Update

We are in week 25 now. Kent variety mango volumes are booming and Kents will be the main variety going forward until mid-August when Keitts become the main variety to finish the season. See the Arrival Volume Chart below. Volumes of ‘Round only’ mangos reached almost 3 million boxes per week last week and are expected to stay there for the next 2 months! The flavor of the Kents is amazing. We expect this to drive strong repeat purchase behavior as it usually does. Prices are cheap, volumes are heavy, sizing is improving, and quality is fantastic. The next 2 months are perfect for heavy mango promotions on Kents and Keitts.

Honey Mangos (Ataulfos) are past the peak and starting to fall in volume quickly in the main region of Nayarit but just starting to pack in Northern Sinaloa. See the pics of the first non-hot water treated Ataulfos being packed below. These will start arriving over the weekend.

Please plan to carry a jumbo size round mangos 5s/6s/7s (PLU 3114 or 3488) as an additional SKU when we get into the Keitts in late July through September.

See pics below of our main mango Labels and note the 24Lb Display Pack that improves stability, ripening performance, and reduces labor at the DC and store level.

Stores on ad on conventional mangos fell from 10,612 stores to 7,483 stores on ad for the week ending 6/20. Weighted average retail price was $0.92 per piece. Stores on organic mango ads fell from 1,822 last week to 448 stores this week with an average retail price of $1.43 each. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country.

We are making a trip to India next week to research Indian mango opportunities. Please contact us if you are interested in looking at a premium variety program.

Mango and Lime Crop Update and Forecast - Week 18

Lime Update

The lime market has fallen drastically on small sizes and large sizes just are not very available. Overall volume has surged from around the 500 load per week level to the 700 load level over the last 7 days reported. Often when lime volumes surge, the crossings data seems to come over delayed and then get revised upward a day or two later. That is why we are only reporting through Tuesday of this week. There has been no rain for many weeks in Veracruz and this is why the sizing is so small. Color is deep green and the skin is thick giving good shelf life, but juice content is low due to the lack of rain. The opportunity for retailers the coming month is in the smallest sizes which will have drastically lower prices such as 230s/250s/275s. If those sizes are just not going to work I would suggest using a 17/2 Lb. bag lime to push sales. Of course it will have the smaller limes in it but with a bag it doesn’t really matter. Please run ad opportunities by us. We have excellent supplies and quality on organic limes as well. We are looking for programs on organic limes.

The number of stores on ad on limes rose from 672 last week to 1,324 stores for the week ending 5/2 at an average retail price of $0.35 per unit. There were zero stores on organic lime ads.

Mango Crop Update

We are ending week 18 today. Mexican mango volume surged this week and we have finally hit the first 500,000 box days of packing We expect to be in the 3- 4 million box per week range now to stay for the next 3 months. Peak season is here. The time is right to promote both Round and Yellow mangos. Prices have fallen significantly across the board and there are very sharp promotional prices available on 10s/12s/14s in round mangos and reasonable prices on Honey mangos as well. See the Arrival Volume Chart below which shows the projected arrival volume split between round and yellow varieties. We will be at consistently high volumes of each for the foreseeable future. Organic round mangos are in great supply as well.

Guatemala is winding down as Mexico enters the high season with 7 states producing at the same time. Oaxaca has seen 2 consecutive days of rain which may speed the end of that season. With Oaxaca going out the only place to get a good amount of large sizes will be in Michoacán where the Kents should start picking next week. We expect pricing to be at a premium for large Kents versus Tommy and Haden. Chiapas is still going strong on Honey mangos since it has not rained yet but starting week 20 the volumes will come down regardless. Nayarit, which is a strong Honey (Ataulfo) and Tommy region is just starting and will ramp up volume quickly. The Nayarit Ataulfos are reported to be generally large in size while the Tommys are expected to peak on 10s then 12s. Sinaloa should start picking strong on Kents about week 23/24. Current week packing is running 28% Ataulfo (Honey), 64% Tommy Atkins, 8% Haden.

Please see the pics of our Haitian Madame Francis mangos below. We are carrying these in New Jersey and are looking for retailers to open the code to carry this amazing tasting mango with its own PLU code (PLU 3621)

Mangos were the 4th most promoted fruit nationwide this past week. Stores on ad on conventional mangos increased from 4,013 stores to 10,929 stores on ad for the week ending 5/2. Weighted average retail price is $0.99 per piece. This average retail price is a mix of Round and Honey Mangoes which tend to have smaller sizing. The USDA unfortunately does not separate round and yellow mangoes in the retail ad data. See the USDA Data on Retail Mango Ads chart below for detailed data by geographic region of the country. Stores on ad on organic mangoes increased from 752 stores to 792 stores at an average price of $1.72 per piece.

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